GOLD

Gods Money

Are we seeing THE Break Out of Gold from the 2000$ Level? 

I do think that we have a high probability for holding the break out, and here is why: 

Chart from www.crowdedmarketreport.com (approved for use).

The other times we considerably broke above 2000$ we did have a much higher level of speculator longs, both large (blue), but especially small (yellow) speculators. 

Also the commercials (red) were positioned much more short. This time we have seen speculators selling Gold above 2000$ getting less long, yet Gold holding strongly above 2k, We also don't see much hype around Gold on social media. (Peter Schiff doesn't count, he is always bullish Gold)

So taking into account the bullish chart structure and the positioning by the futures trader, I think the time has come for a big Break Out in Gold. 

How would I play such a Break Out best? 

Gold Miners as a leveraged bet on the Gold Price have been getting hammered in the past few months, here you can see the GDX chart: 

As I do not like buying into Downtrends, I have searched for a stock, that represented a leveraged Gold play in an Uptrend, that also satisfied my fundamental screening conditions. 

Enter Osisko Gold Royalties

It broke out last week out of a multi week consolidation, and after printing a beautiful reversal candle the week prior. 

Momentum and Trend are intact, as are the fundamentals: 

The $OR chart, doesnt give a great point for a SL and is very volatile. 

So I will use the Gold chart to tell me when the trade is invalidated: 

If we close on a weekly basis below 2030$ I will exit the trade, if Gold keeps going, or just holding above 2030$ I will just hold onto $OR and enjoy the dividend. 

Disclosure: I own $OR (Osisko Gold Royalties) as of Tuesday March fifth. 

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It is just the research of an amateur.