Market Internals breaking
Weekly Macro Analysis 14.02.26
Long Term Outlook:
Liquidity Downturn precedes a Market Downturn.
We are within a speculative phase in the markets and about to enter the turbulence phase somewhere in Q1 or Q2 of 2026.
Commodities and Cash are the preferred holdings for the current phase.
Bonds and defensives are the preferred holdings for the next phase.
Short Term Outlook:
The SPY keeps chopping around and sees heavy selling after yet another rejection.
Are the dip buyers able to push it up again?
The QQQ tries to get above teh 20EMA but fails and is now looking quite vulnerable here.
For this year, I include a chart off the XLE every week until my thesis is disproven:
The XLE continues to outperform the S&P 500.
Intermarket Relations
BTC/Gold Daily - Have we had a panic low on this ratio here?
Trend is down so dont be a hero.
XLY/XLP Daily - Complete Breakdown here… this is very bearish!
Leadership:
Bull Market Leaders underperform the S&P 500.
NVDA, PLTR and HOOD are the main retail darlings of this entire bull market, that started in early 2023.
Higher Low? Or do we focus on the failed retest of the breakdown?
Again: Dont be a Hero.
Revisit from last week:
IYR - Real Estate - Weekly Chart:
Clean Break of this Downtrendline.
I might overinterpret this, but this might be a macro shift, indicating lower rates on the long end, which might run contrary to my energy thesis…
So I bought IYR and DLR (pointed it out last week on here) to give my portfolio more balance.
Summary:
Risk Off Equities and Energy far outperform the Risk On Equities and BTC.
The strength in XLP, IYR and XLU combined with the weakness in XLY, XLC and XLK should be worrisome for Equity Bulls.
This is a stock pickers market and we should make sure to trade along the sector trend, instead of trying to fight the current.
So I continue to push the gas as long as the feedback from my account allows me to. Because this rotation could take a while to play out.
Portfolio:
Last week I stop out of POU and BIR, these were mistakes, I had stops that were too tight for such illiquid names, the spread killed me. Lesson Learned!
I buy DLR, IDUP, SWK and MTH on monday and CSIQ and ENPH on friday.
Charts of my new positions:
IDUP - Daily: This is a german ETF version of IYR
Setup: DTL (Downtrendline) Break
DLR - Daily: Real Estate Pick from last week, the other two picks I mentioned performed even better, however I didnt want to buy them before earings
Setup: EMA Ride and Sector DTL Break
MTH - Daily: A homebuilder with a clean chart, I also noticed NAIL breaking its DTL this week.
Setup: DTL (Downtrendline) Break
SWK - Daily: Big Move on earnings… I really dig the weekly!
Trend Trade, small position.
ENPH - Daily: Energy Theme, sharp pullback after strong earnings gap
Setup: EMA Pullback
CSIQ - Daily: Another Solar name, this is beaten down big.
Setup: DTL (Downtrendline) Break
Thank you for your analysis
good stuff. lots of sector-specific DTL Breaks out there