Morning Note 20.08.24
NVDA Pump Market
Current Market Conditions:
How did the indices act yesterday?
NVDA was leading QQQ, which was leading SPY, so we had a bullish day overall, that is what I want to see from a Bull Market. Strong Leadership.
What are the main trends right now?
Strong equity recovery after scary VIX spike
Bonds are trending up
Gold is in an Uptrend
Stocks have left their uptrend, but also saved themselves from a Downtrend
Medium term, defensive sectors still have the edge
Daily, the offensive stocks are leading.
Whats the Current Risk Appetite in Markets?
→ Medium. Offesives are leading and not slowing down
What is my positioning, based on what I know about the markets:
Still 85% in Cash. I bought two more starter positions in FRE and ALS.
Trades taken
ALS Weekly
ALS is a more of a royalties company, than a mining company, as they finance ethical/green/sustainable mining, they had a nice weekly breakout and have the best fundamentals of any mining stock:
FRE Weekly
This german medical giant has broken out of a very large Stage 1 Accumulation base.
As it is a very slow mover, I bought slightly OTM Calls with expiration in december 2025.
General Strategy
I am trying to find and buy into stocks that I believe have the potential to trend for many weeks and months. That is why I am not participating much in the Tech rally right now. With the Macro Filter I try to see themes develop early and get into the leading stocks.
Setups In Scope:
JP225
Nikkei has stopped being a meaningful leader for US markets since monday. Right now it is struggling to get over fridays high. Relative strength is waning as the Nikkei is being rejected.