Turbulence Phase

Macro Report 28.03.2025

Last weeks price action confirmed my suspicion that we entered the turbulence phase.

Protecting Capital is now the most important objective.

Everything will be very volatile from here on out. We can expect big drops and big Bear Market Rallies. Some tradeable, some not.

In many of my portfolios my first step was to “lock away” between 50 and 75% of my capital. I will opportunistically try and trade some rallies, but I will not deploy more than half of my capital. I will take profits early and often and not expect a sustained uptrend.

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QQQ - Clean Breakdown of a major topping pattern. A retest toward the breakdown level is likely at some point this year.

Gold - Found support and showed relative strength last week. Taking note!

Energy - Keeps exploding higher, it is very extended on the daily now.

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Crypto - Last week I pointed out how Crypto was the only asset class that behaved antithetical, that condition reversed and for me that was the final nail in the coffin for my Call that the Turbulence Phase started.

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Projections:

Weekly S&P 500 Futures:

The rolling top and break of the uptrend channel speaks volumes as to where we are in the cycle.

6000$ is the first target to the downside. Retesting the Pre-Tariff breakout Level.

I would not be surprised to undercut that level for another leg to the downside before this Bear Market is going to be over (assuming I am correct and we are getting a Bear Market).

5600$ is my second and final target for the second leg lower.

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