Weekly Macro Analysis
24.02.24
Starting with my Risk Signals, that can in theory indicate periods of higher or lower volatility.
Lumber to Gold: Risk Off
IEF/TLT: Switched to Risk Off
XLU/SPY: Risk On still
SPY: Another week, another ATH for SPY
Volume and Breadth Last Week:
Volume and Breadth this week:
We are in the middle of nowhere with breadth, yet A/D Line was rising every day last week, and we also saw a lot more New Highs than Lows, setting an Uptrend, for the entire year of 2024 so far.
This is how it looked in sector terms:
Strongest: Consumer Defensives, Healthcare, Financials
Weakest: Real Estate, Communication Services, Technology
Chart of the week: XLK/SPY has topped out in January, no lower low yet though.
eTorians after having bought the DIP in NQ last week, have now gotten rid of their longs. Instead they bought the Russel.
Conclusion:
Last week, I was convinced we had seen the top, and Monday and Tuesday seemed to confirm it, yet NVDA reported strong earnings again and that moved global markets a lot.
We made another ATH in SPY and QQQ and DAX and NIKKEI and it is really hard to call that a bearish development.
Yet we are also seeing a bid in TLT and Gold, while at the same time, there are a lot of shorts in YEN and CHF, two traditionally Risk Off Currencies.
I am staying cautious, although I increased my long exposure again. And I also took a stake in TLT.