Weekly Macro Analysis 08.06.24

Buyers in control?

Dare I say it, but I am getting more bullish. Not on the real economy, that seems pretty much done anyways, but on the stock markets, especially the Nasdaq 100:

The big question is, was the breakout from last week real?

I feel like it was. My Macro indicators are getting more and more Risk On.

While at the same time, every media outlet and the traders are getting more bearish.

It goes without saying that I know we are overbought and insanely overvalued, maybe even in bubble territory. The whole system feels on edge. We heard the news about Starwood Capital restricting withdrawals. And about Deutsche Bank losing hundreds of millions of USD on an Office Real Estate Deal in Manhattan.

But in doubt, Price is truth. My my Macro indicators also take away the guessing, big money is rotating and it does not rotate into safety, unless NVDA is the last safe haven.

Does this look bearish to you?

I might have to eat my words here though.

But rest assured that my opinion is not my position.

Instead I want to focus on three themes that might come into play next, as the AI theme is very much crowded.

I talked about them before but I will reemphasize:

Solar:

Biotech:

Defense: