Weekly Macro Analysis 13.04.24
Correction is in full swing...
Weekly Macro Score: 6,5/15
Conclusion:
I think I nailed it last week, being positioned more in cash and defensives than I have been all year. My WMS (Weekly Macro Score) is improving to the upside, yet it is far from the “All Clear”. I would assume we will see more downside in the indices, yet the more aggressive sectors holding up better than: Utilities, Real Estate, Healthcare and Consumer defensives.
I would then start looking at the strongest stocks, that held up relatively well, and take them at critical support levels. Ideally I would try to find some stocks that just consolidated laterally and start to move up, before the markets even bottoms out.
I am using leading indicators, so it does not make sense to jump the gun directly, but let it play out and find strength after the pull back. Patience is key.
Lumber to Gold: Risk Off
IEF/TLT: Risk On still
XLU/SPY: Risk Off
XLY/XLP: Risk On
XLK/SPY: Risk Off still
NQ/Gold: Risk Off
DJT/DIA: Risk On
IWF/IWD: Risk On
SPY: A down week with volatility rising. Yet firmly above 200 DMA
SPY Distribution Days in past 4 weeks: 4
Volume and Breadth went negative even more: Risk Off
Retail bought even more into equities and also bought into precious metals, while selling USD and JPY… which makes me cautious.
AAII Investor Sentiment:
CNN Fear and Greed Index:
Strongest: Comm. Services, Technology,Consumer Cyclical
Weakest: Financial, Healthcare, Real Estate
