Weekly Macro Analysis 20.04.24
Correction is not done yet
Weekly Macro Score: 3,5/15
Conclusion:
As indicated in last weeks report, patience actually was key, as markets turned sour.
We saw massive underperformance by the sectors that should be leading in a bull market and got absolutely hammered on Nasdaq 100.
Apart from the markets we might have avoided a more devastating conflict in the middle east, because Iran thankfully did not get baited into a larger conflict by Israel, I can only hope that cooler heads prevail.
Most interesting was the reaction of crude oil to this conflict, as it went down from 86 to 82$ per barrel of oil. Either Wallstreet did not buy into WW3 or the economy is in bigger trouble than most TV analysts are anticipating.
New housing permits came in way lower than expected, so I do not think it is outlandish to assume we are in stagflation right now.
Market Picture:
S&P 500 is taking a dive, it would be better if it doesn´t close below 4800, but it seems like a retest of the breakout above the 2021 Highs is in the cards.
Oil is still in a range between 70 and 90$ per barrel, and given the futures positioning, I would not be surprised if we test 70$ soon.
GOLD is the most interesting chart out there, with a lot of fundamental and technical tailwinds. My minimum target on the recent breakout is 2620$. It might be less of a straight line from here on though.
