Weekly Macro Analysis 20.10.24
Gold and Silver - Special edition
We are still at the same Macro Score as last week, but saw some shifts underneath.
Some signs like breadth expansion and retail sentiment becoming less bullish are very encouraging.
At the same time we saw an outperformance of traditionally more defensive sectors, like Utilities and Real Estate, however, one could argue that Utilities are just the new AI play and that Real Estate is profitting from the FED pivot. Which would put a bullish spin on things. We should also not forget, that for a sustainable Bull Market we need to see rotation and that is what we are getting:
Last week I mentioned that we should see Follow through in Small Caps and BTC and we did get both:
Small Caps:
BTC:
While I couldnt have asked for more (I specifically asked for what we got), I wonder if it can really be this easy to anticipate those breakouts…
My guess is, that it wont be this easy and that we will see a final shake out before we move up.
If we move up.
Todays Special edition featuring Precious Metals:
Gold - monthly perspective
Cant get any more bullish than this chart. Obviously it is in a strong uptrend, after breaking out of a 13 year base. It may not be the perfect time to enter, but I also wouldnt short it right now.
Silver - monthly perspective
Silver exploded higher on friday, to close the day with 6% gain on a 12 Year High.
Is this the breakout to a Silver Bull market?
Silver vs Gold
Silver has been underperforming Gold massively for the past thirteen years, now it threatens to break the downtrendline as well as multi year horizontal resistance.
Interesting spot. Clearly shining a light on some special developments in the precious metals area.
GDX vs SPY
Goldminers (GDX) have been underperforming the S&P 500 for the past decade, this could be about to change, as we put in a strong bottom with a false breakdown in february 2024, just before the major Gold Breakout in march.
GDXJ vs GDX
One of the most predictive relationships for how goldminers in general will be doing, is the relationship between Junior Goldminers (GDXJ) and Goldminers (GDX).
It looks like we finally broke the major downtrend we have been in since 2011, at the same time we have built a major base for years now, and look ready to go.
However the same could have been said in May of this year, but we retraced strongly, so I want to see the May High get taken out on this chart, to call it an uptend.
This will be the final piece of the puzzle.
In the coming week, I will highlight some Gold and Silver miners, that I am invested or interested in.