Weekly Macro Analysis 22.06.24
Calling the NVDA Top
Macro Signals look more bullish, than I think is justified.
Because sentiment is too bullish.
Exposure has become to crowded as well.
I think these two factors are playing a major role in what happens to NVDA and the Semiconductor/AI trade:
NVDA has been extended for a while and together with the positioning I think we might put in a top. It might not be THE Top, but it could be similar to the top we saw in march this year:
Looks eerily similar no? This is how it played out, a peak to trough correction of 22% with a shake out below the 50DMA:
Another example could be the correction after the earnings in july of last year:
But it could of course also be the Top in NVDA. Who still has not bought into this name yet, that believes in the AI revolution?