Weekly Macro Analysis 25.08.24
Crossroads
Last week I thought we would see Risk On conditions returning, but so far that has not been the case. Gold, TLT, Utilities and Staples are standing strong, while Technology and Growth cant break through on a weekly basis.
Looking at the Charts, we can see that we are close to a decision point, but havent decided yet:
QQQ - We had a distribution candle on thursday, big volume, big candle coompletely engulfing the day before, the tension increased with fridays inside bar, where we just consolidated within the range of thursdays candle.
Whatever way this breaks could be very meaningful.
NVDA - Same thing, big engulfing candle on thursday, followed by an inside bar:
SPY - same engulfing candle, but stronger recovery on friday and now only half a percent away from new ATHs.
Crossroads:
The wall of worry has crumbled, Powell with his speech on friday gave the all clear to the bulls. There is no reason, for the markets to trade below thursdays close, - yet, if we do so, I would see it as a powerful bearish sign.
The bears have capitulated:
Put/Calls back to Greed: nobody needs protection.
Implications:
Breaking the august 22nd low, would be a short signal for me, probably short NVDA, QQQ or Nikkei
Breaking the august 22nd high, I will start adding positions in Small Caps, Industrials, Homebuilders and Energy.