Weekly Macro Analysis 27.10.24
Tesla - back from the dead
Risk signals look fine, but there are definetly some worrying signs in the Bond World.
Move Index - Bond Volatility has been rising, which is not a good sign for the Bond and Equity markets:
Bonds in general have had a hard time, but especially the Long End took one hit after the other:
T-Bond futures are now down 5% on the year and down more than 7% since the FED cut rates by 50bps in september:
Was this just a normal Buy the rumor - Sell the news event, or are the bond markets worried about the FED being too agressive in easing financial conditions, which could lead to sticky inflation…
Or has it to do with the elections, as Trumps odds have been rising, and he is seen as a bit of a loose canon with his talking as well as government spending.
Your guess is as good as mine.
What we shouldnt underestimate is the impact it can have on the equity markets.
So far they have ignored it and just continued to move up, but at some point they wont be able to.
On the good news front, we saw strong earnings from TSLA and a big move up in one of the most hated stocks of all time:
Personally I think it is a great opportunity to buy, but to each his own.
The BTC Breakout I was talking about two weeks back, still hasnt materialized, although we are getting very close…
Still the question remains, can a breakout that is so widely anticipated and communicated really happen?