Weekly Macro Analysis 9.03.24

Sell Off in Nasdaq100 on the way?

Lumber to Gold: Risk Off

IEF/TLT: Risk Off

XLU/SPY: Risk Off

XLY/XLP: Risk Off

SPY: Another week, another ATH for SPY ( 8th week in a row, gotta be a record)

Volume and Breadth this week: 

Breadth and New Highs are still looking really strong… 

eTorians biggest changes are going long NQ and Nikkei and selling CHF. This fits well with my hypothesis of a CHF and JPY  Rally and a possible Sell Off in NQ and Nikkei. 

This is how it looked in sector terms: 

Strongest: Utilities, Basic Materials, Real Estate 

Weakest: Consumer Cyclical, Communications, Technology

Conclusion: 

My signals all turned Risk Off, we are seeing Risk Off Plays (CHF, JPY and Gold) doing well this week, yet Risk On Assets were not that excited about the USD Sell Off.  

Pair that with excited retail traders buying into NQ and Nikkei and I think we will see a correction starting next week. I would not be surprised if NVDA was getting hit the hardest. 

I am not shorting it though. This market is still a Bull.

Chart of the Week: CHFUSD

Is this a higher Low in a Long Term Uptrend on the CHFUSD pair?