Weekly Macro Analysis 9.11.24

The Trump Pump

The week has been dominated by the election and the markets are excited for the second term of Donald Trump.

Macro Score is as high as we saw it all year and the market is BULLISH.

I will be the first one to admit, that I did not see this easy victory for Trump last week.

However there were some hints that he would win on election night and it was enough for me to put on my variation of the Trump Trade:

Fossil Fuel Producer, Crypto, Small Caps and Consumer Discretionary (TSLA, AMZN)

I should have pointed them out more clearly last week in here, but I have been talking about them in the past months:

LNG - Cheniere Energy, a Liquid Natural Gas Producer and my highest conviction Position:

TSLA - The Elon and Trump Trade (Tariffs for Chinese EVs?)

AMZN - The consumer stock in the MAG 7:

Both TSLA and AMZN I pointed out last week:

I think the breakout in them, along with their consumer discretionary sector will set the tone for the next bull market leg higher.

HCC - Warrior Met Coal: A Coal producer

IWM - Small Caps:

BTC - The Breakout finally happened and it looks as real as it gets.

Not much more to say… this is the most bullish chart in the world.

3 Year cup and handle breakout on literally the most bullish asset in human history.

(BTC since its invention/birth has gone up more than any other asset in history and it is also one of the hardest assets in the world, meaning there will never be more than 21mio BTC, but some off those even will be lost)

To not have a stake in this, is insanity in my opinion. You don´t have to bet the house on it, but not having a small percentage of your overall wealth in this asset seems more like denying reality than anything else.

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Last week I pointed out XBI and it broke out, still think its a GREAT opportunity to get this here and hold it for many months.

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This is how I am currently positioned for the Trump Trade and I do not plan on changing anything until we get substantial evidence to do so.

The Trend on the monthly, weekly and daily charts align for those positions:

Iris Energy is a BTC miner and my way to express the BTC bet.

Dell is still my AI bet, as SMCI might be severely damaged by its accounting fraud and Dell could profit from it.

Chart didnt look great last week, and I may have to get rid of it, if it reverses here:

SNDL - A Weed stock that reacted badly to the elections and a vote against Marijuana in Florida, it broke out briefly above 2.30 on earnings but then got hit hard the next day due to elections. I might cut this rather sooner than later, but it is a small position and I dont see to much downside risk on the weekly chart.